I am not sure that the Kremlin knows what will happen next. This time we are all aware that Russia might invade Ukraine: after all, it happened once already, not so very long ago, and Russia has more than a hundred thousand troops at the border in addition to the ones stationed in the parts of Ukraine that it already occupies. The last time Russia attacked Ukraine, in 2014, I made the correct prediction against the prevailing wisdom. I keep being asked whether Russia will invade Ukraine again.
